Wu Yize Ranking: Why a Belfast Final May Not Make Him World No. 1

Update, 16 October: Wu has withdrawn from the Northern Ireland Open for medical reasons (WST), so he can't overtake Zhao at the top of the rankings in Belfast. The sums below show what was at stake.

Wu Yize is world No. 2. After his Shenzhen Open title on 4 October he sits £26,650 behind Zhao Xintong on the official two-year list, £1,238,900 to £1,265,550. The next chance to close that gap is the Northern Ireland Open, which starts in Belfast on Sunday.

The obvious reading is that a good week in Belfast makes Wu the new world No. 1. The draw makes it less simple than that, and one route to the final would leave him short.

How the sum works

Snooker's world rankings are prize money. Every ranking event pays into a two-year list, and when a new edition of an event goes on, the same event from two years earlier comes off.

So two things happen after Belfast. The 2026 prize money goes on, and the 2024 Northern Ireland Open comes off. Zhao has nothing to lose there: he spent 2024-25 on the amateur Q Tour after his ban ended. Wu does. In 2024 he lost his opening match to Oliver Lines, 4–1, so whatever that last-64 exit paid him, at most £3,600, drops off his total.

That puts Wu's target somewhere between £26,650 and £30,250. He has to out-earn Zhao in Belfast by that much.

The prize money by round: £100,000 to the winner, £45,000 to the runner-up, £21,000 for a semi-final, £13,200 for a quarter-final, £9,000 for the last 16.

Four outcomes

Wu wins the title. He becomes world No. 1 whatever Zhao does. Zhao can't earn more than £21,000, because the two are in the same half of the draw: Zhao is in the third quarter with Judd Trump and Ronnie O'Sullivan, Wu at the bottom. The best Zhao can do is reach the semi-final and lose it, which still leaves Wu at least £79,000 ahead on the week.

Wu loses the final, Zhao went out by the quarter-finals. £45,000 against £13,200 at most is a margin of £31,800 or more. Enough.

Wu beats Zhao in the semi-final, then loses the final. This is the trap. Wu takes £45,000 and Zhao £21,000. The margin is £24,000, short of £26,650 before Wu's 2024 money even comes off. He would have knocked out the world No. 1 on the way to a final and still sit second on the next list. (That's on round money; the £5,000 high-break prize aside.)

Wu loses in the semi-final. £21,000 is less than the gap even if Zhao earns nothing. No change at the top.

In short: Wu needs the trophy, or a final in a week where someone else has already beaten Zhao.

What his Belfast record says

Belfast has not been his best venue. In 2024 he went out to Lines in his first match. Last year he beat Scott Donaldson 4–3 and then lost to He Guoqiang 4–2 in the last 32.

He opens against Donaldson again, at 13:00 on Monday 19 October. Every match is best of 7 until the quarter-finals, and Wu's best-of-7 record this season is three wins and two defeats: a 4–1 loss to Kyren Wilson at the British Open and a 4–1 loss to Liam Davies at the English Open.

The Shenzhen run that put him second was close all the way. Six matches, six wins, and two of them went to a deciding frame: 5–4 against Jamie Clarke in his opener and 5–4 against Shaun Murphy in the quarter-final. Then he took Judd Trump apart 6–1 and beat Yuan Sijun 10–5 in the final.

Wu and Zhao head to head

If they meet, it would be in the semi-final, best of 11. Wu has the better of their recent meetings. Since June 2025 Wu leads 3–1, including a 9–6 win in the International Championship semi-final last November on his way to that title. Zhao's only win was a 3–2 in a Championship League group.

Both have to get there first. Zhao, who has lost his first match at three of six events this season, opens against Gao Yang on Tuesday and could meet O'Sullivan in the last 16 and Trump in the quarter-finals.

Two lists, two different stories

The official list rewards the biggest cheques of the last two years, and the two biggest belong to these two: Zhao's 2025 Crucible title and Wu's 2026 one. It says very little about who is playing best this month.

Our Form Rating, which only weighs recent results, has a different order. Trump is first, Zhao second, Mark Selby third and Wu fifth. Wu was ninth on 27 September; Shenzhen moved him up four places in a week. On the one-year list Wu is third.

So the No. 1 spot is a sum, not a verdict. The sum says Wu needs a final at the very least. The form says Belfast is open: four different players have won the last four ranking events, and the last two weeks of results say Wu is one of the few in the field who wins close matches when it counts.

The next official list comes after the final on Sunday 25 October.