Result: Sam Craigie won 4–3. The Form Rating favoured Xiao Guodong, so the prediction was wrong.
Xiao Guodong is the Form Rating favourite at 54%, against 46% for Sam Craigie. They haven't met in the matches we hold, which start in June 2025. Xiao Guodong is 7–8 this season with 6 centuries.
The percentages come from the Century Radar Form Rating, a margin-of-victory Elo over the last 12 months. We back-tested it on 408 matches of best-of-7 or longer played between 30 May 2026 and 4 October 2026, using only the ratings each player had before the match. The favourite won 60.8% of them, and 71.1% of the 90 where we held both players' full records. Best-of-7 matches are short, so upsets are common.