Result: Liam Davies won 4–2. The Form Rating favoured Shaun Murphy, so the prediction was wrong.
Shaun Murphy is the Form Rating favourite at 67%, against 33% for Liam Davies. They haven't met in the matches we hold, which start in June 2025. Shaun Murphy is 13–7 this season with 15 centuries.
The percentages come from the Century Radar Form Rating, a margin-of-victory Elo over the last 12 months. We back-tested it on 408 matches of best-of-7 or longer played between 30 May 2026 and 4 October 2026, using only the ratings each player had before the match. The favourite won 60.8% of them, and 71.1% of the 90 where we held both players' full records. Best-of-7 matches are short, so upsets are common.