Result: Mateusz Baranowski won 4–3. The Form Rating favoured Mateusz Baranowski, so the prediction was right.
The Form Rating sees this as close to even: Gary Wilson 49%, Mateusz Baranowski 51%. They have met once since June 2025, and Gary Wilson leads 1–0. Gary Wilson won the last meeting 5–4 in the last 32 of the 2025 Xi'an Grand Prix. Gary Wilson is 4–6 this season with 2 centuries.
The percentages come from the Century Radar Form Rating, a margin-of-victory Elo over the last 12 months. We back-tested it on 408 matches of best-of-7 or longer played between 30 May 2026 and 4 October 2026, using only the ratings each player had before the match. The favourite won 60.8% of them, and 71.1% of the 90 where we held both players' full records. Best-of-7 matches are short, so upsets are common.